A promising convergence

The recent Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2015) in Las Vegas highlighted several manufacturing trends we follow at Aerospace Manufacturing & Design. Beyond unveilings of cell phones, giant flat-screen TVs, fitness trackers, and other assorted gizmos were products – unmanned aerial vehicles (UAS) and 3D-printing technologies in particular – pitched directly to tech-savvy consumers.

Just a few years ago, these items would have been marketed almost exclusively to specialized trade groups and manufacturing audiences. The profusion of these products on display is clear evidence that these technologies are now within reach of people with modest disposable incomes and the ability to use a smart phone.

More than 100 UAS (drone) companies were represented at the show. Sure, most of the wares they were promoting were small, hobbyist aircraft intended for personal use. But the appearance of semi-autonomous quadcopters that can shadow an operator via cell phone app confirms that the marketplace is well ahead of the Federal Aviation Administration’s efforts to integrate UAS into the National Airspace. The commercial potential, even for modest, near-earth applications such as real estate photography or crop monitoring, was overshadowed by the drones’ ability to enhance that seemingly essential must-have of modern life, the selfie.

One tiny camera drone prototype – a flexible quadcopter – can be worn on the wrist, thrown into the air, and automatically take a high-resolution still image or video of the user, providing more inclusive, desirable self-portraits with a panoramic, aerial perspective. One can hope these drones don’t become so popular as to be a threat or annoyance in every public space, but the proliferation of personal UAS suggests there will be no shortage of knowledgeable operators for larger vehicles in more serious applications.

The home market for 3D printers reminds me of the market for personal computers 30 years ago. Those early PCs – with their monochrome screens and DOS software – couldn’t do much that couldn’t be done by other means, and they cost as much as a decent used car. But early adopters helped to advance the state of the art. Now, it’s difficult to imagine a business or household without computers.

The global user groups and near-instantaneous support available to desktop 3D-printer owners via the Internet will ensure the widespread adoption of this technology will happen in less time than it took home computers to become ubiquitous. Sure, the machines available to prosumers now are slow, small, and limited in printable materials. But that is changing, and rapidly. Open-source software and control platforms are spurring entrepreneurs to develop the next best thing.

Do-it-yourselfers are designing their own household gadgets and printing – additively manufacturing them – at home.

In the not-too-distant future, I foresee a convergence of recreational manufacturing with capabilities that once were limited to major manufacturers. In the process, a whole generation of young people will learn CAD/CAM software, design principles, manufacturing processes, and materials knowledge. These skills, so essential to maintaining a manufacturing base, will soon appear in the workforce. Better still, the training in 3D/additive manufacturing that future job candidates will have acquired on their own will have come at no cost to their prospective employers. – Eric